Based on current intelligence from late 2025 through early 2026, the primary threat to manufacturing companies is the convergence of high-volume Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) with sophisticated Supply Chain pre-positioning.
As of Q1 2026, the manufacturing sector remains the most targeted industry globally, accounting for approximately 72% of all industrial ransomware incidents. The threat has evolved from simple data encryption to "multi-path access" where IT-only intrusions are intentionally designed to cascade into Operational Technology (OT) downtime, causing multi-week production and logistics outages.
1. Key Threat Actors & Campaigns (2025-2026)
The landscape is dominated by fragmented affiliate groups and nation-state-linked APTs focusing on disruptive capabilities.
| Threat Actor / Group | Associated Malware | Primary Target / Sector | Notable Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qilin | Qilin Ransomware | Manufacturing, Equipment Mfg | Multi-week production outages; exploits Fortinet flaws. |
| Akira | Akira Ransomware | ICS Equipment, Engineering | Rapid exploitation of SonicWall vulnerabilities (CVE-2024-40766). |
| UAT-8837 (China) | Custom APT Toolsets | Critical Infrastructure (US/Canada) | Pre-positioning for infrastructure disruption and IP theft. |
| ZipLine (Campaign) | MixShell | U.S. Manufacturing Supply Chain | Advanced social engineering via "Contact Us" forms. |
| Everest | Various / RaaS | Automotive (Nissan), Telecom Mfg | Stolen engineering docs and supply chain pivot. |
| Sinobi | Various | Manufacturing, Construction | Expansion into emerging tech and renewables. |
2. Critical Vulnerabilities (CVEs) Under Active Exploitation
Attackers are prioritizing IT infrastructure that manages OT environments, specifically targeting VPNs, firewalls, and industrial-specific optimization software.
| CVE ID | Affected Product | Exploited By | Threat Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVE-2024-55591 | Fortinet (FortiOS/FortiProxy) | Qilin | Authentication bypass leading to unauthorized access. |
| CVE-2024-40766 | SonicWall (SOHO/Gen 6/7) | Akira | Unauthorized access/RCE; a primary entry point for RaaS. |
| CVE-2025-61943 | AVEVA Process Optimization | Unknown (New) | High-severity unauthenticated RCE in manufacturing software. |
| CVE-2025-61937 | AVEVA Process Optimization | Unknown (New) | SQL Injection leading to server compromise. |
| CVE-2024-21762 | Fortinet (FortiOS) | Qilin | SSL VPN RCE used to gain persistent network footholds. |
3. MITRE ATT&CK Technical Mapping
Modern attacks against manufacturing leverage a mix of traditional and AI-assisted techniques.
- Initial Access:
- T1190 - Exploit Public-Facing Application: Extensive use of CVE-2024-40766 and CVE-2024-55591.
- T1566.002 - Phishing: Spearphishing Link: Social engineering via website "Contact Us" forms (e.g., ZipLine campaign).
- Persistence & Defense Evasion:
- T1014 - Rootkit: Use of supply-chain implants during software upgrades.
- T1572 - Protocol Tunneling: DNS-tunneling for C2 communications observed in the ZipLine campaign.
- Impact:
- T831 - Data Destruction / T1486 - Data Encrypted for Impact: Widespread use of RaaS to halt production.
- T1489 - Service Stop: Intentional disruption of ERP/MES and virtualization systems to induce OT downtime.
4. Emerging 2026 Risks: AI-Induced Breaches
A significant emerging threat identified in 2026 is the adoption of poorly governed autonomous generative-AI agents. Manufacturing firms are increasingly deploying AI with broad internal access to streamline logistics and design. Intelligence suggests these agents are now being targeted via:
- Prompt Manipulation: To gain excessive privileges.
- Accidental Data Exposure: Due to flawed design or lack of least-privilege controls.
- AI-Assisted Social Engineering: Used by threat actors to generate high-fidelity, legitimate-looking communication for supply chain phishing.
Analyst Recommendation
Manufacturing firms must shift from broad volume metrics to IOC hunting and intrusion-depth measurement. Immediate priorities should include patching AVEVA, Fortinet, and SonicWall assets and implementing strict MFA/Identity controls for all IT/OT gateways, as credential abuse remains the fastest path to production-stopping outages.